Issue 3 Fact Check: Will Casinos Keep $1 Billion in Ohio?

CENTRAL OHIO -- The Issue 3 casino campaign urges Ohio votes to approve the construction of four casinos in Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Toledo.

NBC 4 checks the facts on a claim by casino backers that the casinos would keep $1 billion in Ohioans' gambling dollars in the state.

The television advertisement from Issue 3 sponsor group the Ohio Jobs and Growth Committee makes a simple case.

"Enough's enough. It's time we took control of our borders," the advertisement begins before going on to explain that Ohioans spend more than $1 billion a year at out-of-state casinos and gaming venues.

"As that $1 billion a year goes out of state, with it goes economic opportunity and jobs It's time to do something," the ad continues.

The billion dollar figure is based on a study by the gaming consulting firm The Innovation Group from New Orleans. The Ohio Jobs and Growth Committee paid for the study, which based its conclusions on gaming revenue from 2008, a year when Ohioans gambled $1.4 billion outside the state border.

In 2013, the study estimates the four newly-constructed casinos would keep $970 million in gaming dollars inside the state. For marketing purposes, Ohio Jobs and Growth is rounding the number up to $1 billion as the group attempts to persuade voters who have rejected gaming expansion four times.

But the $970 million figure may not hold up because the Innovation Group study contains a major flaw; It does not account for the state of Ohio's
plan to put video lottery terminals, commonly referred to as slot machines, at Ohio's seven horse-racing tracks.

While the plan faces several legal challenges, Issue 3 backers make no mention of the slots and the potential impact on gaming revenues in their advertising or marketing campaign.

Governor Ted Strickland budget calls for the slot machines to provide the state with $933 million in revenue over the next two fiscal years.

But the Innovation Group's study, completed in May 2009, was released prior to the introduction of the Governor's plan.

Ohio Jobs and Growth spokesperson Bob Tennenbaum maintains the $1 billion figure is accurate, despite the potential for competition within Ohio's borders.

"We have not gone to the expense of revising the numbers mainly because there's too much uncertainty surrounding the slots proposal. It's the subject of three separate lawsuits in the Supreme Court," Tennenbaum said.

Ohio Jobs and Growth is projecting $651 million in tax revenue a year for cities, counties and school districts, including $16 million each year for Franklin County and $24 million for Columbus. Those numbers are projected to increase as time passes.

Opposition group TruthPAC argues that the Innovation Group's revenue projections are too optimistic in calling for Ohioans to gamble $1.78 billion at casinos by 2013, despite an economy that has significantly worsened since the time period that the Innovation Group studied.

Tennenbaum argues that if the projections fall short, Ohio will still gain hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue. He contends that the race tracks and casinos can co-exist and maintain profitability.

"As long as we don't have casinos in Ohio that money is going to continue to leave the state, and when that money leaves the state the tax revenue it produces also goes with it," Tennenbaum said.

If the Ohio Supreme Court rules on the three lawsuits challenging the state's slots plan before the election, Tennenbaum said Ohio Jobs and Growth will revise its figures and release them to the public, if time permits before the election.

Until that occurs, Tennenbaum said Issue 3 supporters will continue to use the projections that do not account for the planned competition at Ohio's horse-racing tracks - projections that could very well be wrong.

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